Home & Aways Week 5

tactics-board

So last week was a vast improvement on the predictions front and saw an 11 out of 15 correct return. Annoyingly Watford were on my slips and cost me a small fortune so, as always, it’s on to this week’s fixtures to see if we can nail a monster.

Homes

It’s a tough week in the BPL to try and sniff out any home value with much confidence. However, the unpredictable enigma that is Newcastle United perhaps look one of the stronger options to take all 3 points against a travelling Hull City side. Alan Pardew will be hoping his talisman Hatem Ben Arfa (HBA) can continue the run of good form he’s found and carry the Magpies to another victory. HBA currently holds the top stat for most attempts at goal in open play this season (13) and I fancy him have a hand in any goals at St James Park today. Loic Remy looked like he may bring some much needed class to the Geordie front line and if he can get off the mark today I can see him doing well for his new employers. Elsewhere you’d expect Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea to come back firing after their terrible defeat midweek in the Champs League. Fulham might wish that defeat hadn’t happened as I can’t see how the Blues won’t come into the game looking to avenge the recent memory. Despite looking quite light up top (thanks to the inexplicable departure of Lukaku to Everton) Chelsea should still have way too much going forward. Frank Lampard was rested midweek so don’t be surprised to see him return fresh and get on the scoresheet once or twice today. Liverpool should add another 3 points to the board today too but I Southampton are a funny bunch capable of throwing out a shock or two so I’m not as confident about this one as many others will be.

The Championship sees a lot of the early form teams with away trips so finding a home gem is tricky. It might be worth taking a punt on Bolton’s poor form continuing with their trip to Brighton. The home side are unbeaten in 5 which includes games against 3 of the current top 7 (QPR, Reading & Burnley) which is none too shabby. I have to say I’ve been surprised by Bolton as I thought they’d start the season well. But this league is tough when you’re down in the dumps and they might continue on a wave they’re not too happy about riding.

League 1 offers us little to stick the mortgage on either this week. Swindon are unbeaten at home so far this season and welcome a Bristol City side still struggling to find their first 3 points of the season. If you’re feeling particularly bold it could also pay to pop Peterborough onto the slips today who take on an unbeaten MK Dons side. Dons are notoriously good on their travels but Posh will have learnt from their last home outing that no game can be taken for granted after being downed 0-2 by Crawley and they shouldn’t let complacency slip in again today.

Morecambe will be looking to make it 5 from 5 when they go up against a Dagenham & Redbridge side buoyed by taking 4 points from their last 6. The Shrimps are the leagues form team right now and… I like form! Mansfield also look an interesting shout against Northampton who’ve only taken 1 point from their last 15. The Cobblers haven’t been the best away team for quite a few seasons and tend to heavily rely on home form for their success. Don’t be surprised to see them get turned over again today.

Aways

It’s the big Manchester derby tomorrow and for anyone fancying a Red win it pays to place bets with various bookies offering ‘money back’ bets on losing punts if Utd come out victors. I think it stinks of a draw so this game won’t be anywhere near my accys however! Aston Villa demolished one of my betslips last weekend so, if anything, they owe me this weekend to turn over Norwich at Carrow Road. Benteke continues to be top boy and I fancy him to cause all sorts of problems for the home defence today. Head scratching fact: The home side have only lost once in their last 11 but guess who to?… The Villains. Tottenham’s new boys should be too much for Palace tomorrow but, we all said that about Man City didn’t we? Gulp.

It’s another toss up between Watford, Forest and QPR in the Championship as to who will inevitably be right and wrong to add to the slips. Watford’s trip to Barnsley and QPR at Yeovil might be the safer two options.

In League 1 Wolves will want to banish the recent loss to rivals Walsall from memory by taking all 3 points at Shrewsbury. And in League 2 there’s a top of the table clash between Oxford and Chesterfield. It’s a risky one but it might pay to add the away side to the slips today. They look like being one of the league’s powerhouses and this win will see them create a juicy gap between them and their rivals below.

Accys

Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs @ 3/1
Newcastle, Chelsea, Pboro, Mansfield @ 8.5/1
L’pool, Villa, Swindon, Morecambe, Watford, QPR, Chesterfield @ 435/1